A case study of 2019-nCOV cases in Argentina with the real data based on daily cases from March 03, 2020 to March 29, 2021 using classical and fractional derivatives

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Kumar P., Ertürk V. S., Murillo-Arcila M., Banerjee R., Manickam A.

ADVANCES IN DIFFERENCE EQUATIONS, vol.2021, no.1, 2021 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 2021 Issue: 1
  • Publication Date: 2021
  • Doi Number: 10.1186/s13662-021-03499-2
  • Journal Name: ADVANCES IN DIFFERENCE EQUATIONS
  • Journal Indexes: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, Academic Search Premier, Aerospace Database, Communication Abstracts, Metadex, zbMATH, Directory of Open Access Journals, Civil Engineering Abstracts
  • Keywords: COVID-19, Argentina, Mathematical models, TRR algorithm, Atangana-Baleanu non-classical derivative, EPIDEMIC, DISEASE
  • Ondokuz Mayıs University Affiliated: Yes

Abstract

In this study, our aim is to explore the dynamics of COVID-19 or 2019-nCOV in Argentina considering the parameter values based on the real data of this virus from March 03, 2020 to March 29, 2021 which is a data range of more than one complete year. We propose a Atangana-Baleanu type fractional-order model and simulate it by using predictor-corrector (P-C) method. First we introduce the biological nature of this virus in theoretical way and then formulate a mathematical model to define its dynamics. We use a well-known effective optimization scheme based on the renowned trust-region-reflective (TRR) method to perform the model calibration. We have plotted the real cases of COVID-19 and compared our integer-order model with the simulated data along with the calculation of basic reproductive number. Concerning fractional-order simulations, first we prove the existence and uniqueness of solution and then write the solution along with the stability of the given P-C method. A number of graphs at various fractional-order values are simulated to predict the future dynamics of the virus in Argentina which is the main contribution of this paper.