Annual Meeting of the American-College-of-Cardiology (ACC) 2025, Chicago, United States Of America, 29 - 31 March 2025, vol.85, pp.1021, (Summary Text)
This paper has been written to mark 25 years of operational medium-range ensemble forecasting. The origins of the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System are outlined, including the development of the precursor real-time Met Office monthly ensemble forecast system. In particular, the reasons for the development of singular vectors and stochastic physics - particular features of the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System - are discussed. The author speculates about the development and use of ensemble prediction in the next 25 years.